StatSystems Sports Bowl Report, Friday 12/31/10 & Saturday 1/1/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/31
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________
THE NEW YEAR... A time to bring from the past all that is right and good, to give to the future the best we have to offer. "May the New Year bring you new dreams, happiness, and peace!" From all of us here at Stat/Systems Sports, "enjoy and as always the very best of luck and Happy New Year!"
__________________________________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
_______________________________________________
When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
______________________________
••• ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM! •••
-------------------------------------------
Alabama was by far the biggest public betting favorite of the 2010 college football season. The defending champion Crimson Tide generated more action and garnered more public support than any other team. Nick Saban’s three-loss team was involved in the sportsbooks’ most profitable and most costly games this season. South Carolina’s upset of Alabama was the biggest victory of the season for both the Las Vegas Hilton and the MGM Mirage sportsbooks. It was ugly for the public.
The Crimson Tide rolled into Columbia in early October as the consensus No. 1 team. No one was even close to Alabama, we were told. The line opened with Tide favored by 7.5. Sharp money came in early on the Gamecocks and knocked the number down to 6.5. Shortly after, Alabama public money began pouring in and eventually bumped the number back to -7 at the Hilton and MGM Mirage. By the time Marcus Lattimore finished off the Crimson Tide, let’s just say it was good to be sitting on sports book manager Jay Rood’s side of the counter at the Mirage.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window Friday & Saturday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
_______________________________
***** FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31ST CFB INFORMATION *****
__________________________________________________
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
••• MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL •••
S FLORIDA (7-5) VS. CLEMSON (6-6)
Bank Of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. EDT Line: Clemson -5.5 O/U 40.5
---------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Tigers are 1-4 in the last five bowl games and this team may have a hard time getting up for this game. Sloppy play on offense cost this team a much better season as four of six losses came by less than a touchdown and Clemson took undefeated Auburn to overtime on the road earlier this year. QB Kyle Parker lost some favor with the coaching staff and though he is headed towards a baseball contract it still appears that he will start this game. Parker was benched in the finale against South Carolina after costly turnovers but the strength of this team is on defense, allowing less than 18 points per game with spectacular numbers against the pass.
South Florida QB B.J. Daniels sat out the final game of the season and his status is still not clear for this game. Daniels had a very disappointing season but South Florida is led by defense as well, with some of the better numbers in the Big East. Clemson played a far tougher schedule and appears to be slightly stronger on both sides of the ball but this is a fairly even match-up with the line right where it projects. Coach Holtz is just 1-3 in bowl games and he was not able to get his team going for huge home games late in the year, falling to both Pittsburgh and Connecticut with a lot on the line.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.
--CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders this season.
--CLEMSON is 8-1 UNDER after the first month of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.
(31-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +17.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-26 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 25.8 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (34.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-18).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team vs the 1rst half total (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 24.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 20.7)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (60-30).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (86-56).
__________________________________
••• SUN BOWL •••
NOTRE DAME (7-5) VS. MIAMI (7-5)
Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. EDT Line: Miami -2.5 O/U 47
--------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: While some of the off field issues have garnered more attention than the on field performance, Coach Kelly will have a chance to end his first season at Notre Dame on a high note with a win over a marquee program. Notre Dame closed the season with three straight wins over quality teams including breaking the long losing streak against USC, something neither of his successors could do. Miami is a team in transition with Al Golden recently announced as the next Head coach. Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland will lead the team in this game however to keep some continuity going.
With a staff looking for jobs and several players with eyes on the NFL this is not an ideal situation for Miami although this is a talented team. Miami beat five teams that will play in bowl games but losing the final two games of the season at home sealed the fate for Coach Shannon after four years. Injuries forced both teams to regroup and shuffle their lineups but Notre Dame impressively ignited its defense late in the year, allowing just 22 points in the final three games. The Irish have a poor track record in recent bowls but Miami has failed to cover in four straight bowls.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Brian Kelly is 19-6 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49.
--MIAMI is 9-2 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons.
--NOTRE DAME is 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total (MIAMI) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games.
(123-77 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.5%, +38.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 24.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 27.8)
The situation's record this season is: (14-19).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (70-54).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (157-119).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (175-136).
____________________________________
••• LIBERTY BOWL •••
UCF (10-3) VS. GEORGIA (6-6)
Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EDT Line: Georgia -6.5 O/U 54
----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Central Florida may come from Conference USA but the Knights have a team that should be able to compete with anyone, even in a match-up with a SEC team. UCF finished 10-3 and all three losses came in close games against bowl teams. While Conference USA has lost the last four Liberty Bowls, each of the last six games has been decided by eight points or less. UCF coach George O’Leary also has plenty of experience playing the Bulldogs from his days coaching at Georgia Tech. UCF should be well motivated after getting blown out in its bowl game last season and this has not proven to be a typical Georgia team.
The Bulldogs were fortunate to get to 6-6 after a 1-4 start to the season and while the offense has put up big numbers the defense has allowed 29 or more points six times. Georgia has won and covered in four straight bowl games and Coach Richt is 7-2 S/U in bowl games but this may be his toughest challenge, motivating a disappointing team to face a smaller conference team in a far less prestigious game than the program is generally used to. Georgia obviously played a stronger schedule but UCF was a better per carry rushing team on both sides of the ball and line value is with the dog.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--UCF is 11-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
--UCF is 12-1 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the L3 seasons.
--George O’Leary is 13-3 ATS after allowing 125 or less rush yds in 2 straight as UCF coach.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 (UCF) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a home win.
(28-8 since 1992.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.9, Opponent 10.1 (Total first half points scored = 20.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in the second half of the season.
(38-16 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.4%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-14 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 32.5, Opponent 22.4 (Average point differential = +10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (49.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-14).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCF) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG after 7+ games, in non-conference games.
(66-28 since 1992.) (70.2%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 52.7
The average score in these games was: Team 24.2, Opponent 24.2 (Total points scored = 48.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 42 (44.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (26-16).
____________________________________________
••• CHICK-FIL A BOWL •••
FLORIDA ST (9-4) VS. S CAROLINA (9-4)
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT Line: S Carolina -3 O/U 54.5
------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: While this has technically been the strongest year at South Carolina since Coach Spurrier took over the program, another bowl loss coupled with the blowout SEC Championship game loss would leave a very unsettled tint to the season. The Gamecocks have lost badly in the past two bowl games and while this is a more prestigious game, returning to the same field as the ugly loss to Auburn may not be advantageous. Florida State is in the same boat, technically improvement was shown in Jimbo Fisher’s first season but the opportunity was there for greater things.
Florida State has been a great performer in bowl encounters including back-to-back convincing victories the last two seasons. Statistically these are very similar teams as both defenses have great talent and produce a lot of sacks, but also allow more yards than expected. Both offenses rely on the passing game a little too much to be a complete team at an elite level. The Seminoles are the better rushing team, averaging 4.8 yards per carry but South Carolina’s worst defensive games have come against strong passing teams, which Florida State can be at times.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Steve Spurrier is 4-13 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of last 7 games as S CAROLINA coach.
--FLORIDA ST is 10-2 OVER as an underdog over the L3 seasons.
--FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS vs. teams averaging 8+ passing yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLORIDA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(23-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 53.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 20.3 (Total points scored = 40.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (61.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (42-16).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 (S CAROLINA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(47-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.6, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 24.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (65-29).
__________________________________
Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about, call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 and start winning today, you’ll be real glad you did” -Stan 'The Man!
______________________________________________
***** SATURDAY, JANUARY 1ST CFB INFORMATION *****
_______________________________________________
••• DALLAS FOOTBALL CLASSIC •••
NORTHWESTERN (7-5) VS. TEXAS TECH (7-5)
Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. EDT Line: Texas Tech -9.5 O/U 60.5
------------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: It is hard to respect Northwestern too much as the Wildcats managed to go just 7-5 after a 5-0 start on the season. Northwestern’s upset over 7-5 Iowa was the only win of the season against a winning team and without starting QB Dan Persa the offense has not had much success. Statistically Northwestern has been out-gained and out-scored and they have a negative turnover margin. This is a team that is always a dangerous underdog however and while Coach Fitzgerald is 0-2 in bowl games, both games went to overtime with Northwestern as heavy underdogs.
Last year in the Outback Bowl Northwestern took Auburn to overtime and the Tigers have turned around to have a pretty strong team this year. Texas Tech was also a lousy team statistically as the defense was terrible, allowing 463 yards per game and while the offense put up big numbers it was a step back for the program. Coach Tuberville has been mentioned as a candidate for a few other positions after just one year in Lubbock so there may be some distractions and the Red Raiders appear overvalued.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--TEXAS TECH is 7-0 UNDER vs. teams with comp. pct. of 62% or better over L2 seasons.
--Pat Fitzgerald is 11-2 UNDER after game with a TO margin of -2 or worse as N’WESTERN coach.
--Tommy Tuberville is 43-20 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (NORTHWESTERN) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.1, Opponent 14.9 (Total first half points scored = 24)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (30-7).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(32-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-24 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 24.4 (Average point differential = -0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (46.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (47-24).
__________________________________
••• OUTBACK BOWL •••
PENN ST (7-5) VS. FLORIDA (7-5)
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. EDT Line: Florida -7 O/U 48
-------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The coaches will dominate the headlines in this match-up as Joe Paterno incredibly coaches bowl game number 37 while Urban Meyer says he will be coaching his last. It was a very disappointing season for Florida at 7-5 including a few uncharacteristic blowout losses. The Gators still had very good defensive numbers but the offense really struggled at times, averaging just 29 points per game. Penn State also finished 7-5 but there were some encouraging performances, albeit through great inconsistency. Penn State looked like a top defensive team early in the year after holding its own against Alabama and Iowa but in eight Big Ten games the Lions allowed at least 21 points each week.
The SEC gets a lot of respect for its record versus the Big Ten but Penn State has won outright as underdogs in its last two bowl games against SEC teams. Value may be on Penn State in this matchup given the surge in interest to back Florida after Coach Meyer’s resignation but in a favorable venue with a big edge on defense the Gators should have several edges in this game. The Gators are still on a great ATS run as favorites over the last few years and while the Penn State bowl numbers must be respected this looks like a mismatch if Florida has full motivation. Expect the Gators to pull away after a close first half.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Joe Paterno is 3-21 ATS away vs. teams allowing <=310 yards/game as PENN ST coach.
--Urban Meyer is 33-7 ATS in non-conference games.
--Urban Meyer is 19-3 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
• INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK: Florida head coach Urban Meyer is 19-2 SU and 17-3-1 ATS with rest, 5-1 SU and ATS as a bowler, and an 'Incredible' 27-0 SU and 18-3 ATS versus sub .666 non-conference opponents.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(44-13 since 1992.) (77.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-26)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 27.1, Opponent 25.9 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PENN ST) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 22 (Total points scored = 41.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-22).
__________________________________
••• CAPITAL ONE BOWL •••
MICHIGAN ST (11-1) VS. ALABAMA (9-3)
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. EDT Line: Alabama -10 O/U 52
----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Michigan State is not getting a great deal of respect despite tying for the Big Ten title and losing just one game all season. The Spartans missed out on a BCS bowl spot but they get the opportunity for a marquee win, facing last year’s national champions. Alabama lost three games this season including the stunning comeback defeat to close the season against Auburn. The Tide has dominant numbers on both sides of the ball but motivating this team for a lesser bowl game may be an issue.
Nick Saban used to coach at Michigan State and Spartans coach Mark Dantonio was an assistant on that staff so there is a history between the coaches. While Michigan State was dealt a favorable conference schedule the Spartans beat six teams that are in bowl games and the numbers across the board are strong with a balanced offense and a very solid defense. Michigan State has lost its bowl game in all three years since Dantonio took over but they have been competitive underdogs in all three games. The last time Alabama was in a letdown bowl situation they were blown out by Utah as heavy favorites and the motivation edge should be with the underdog, out to prove they belonged in the BCS.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Nick Saban is 18-3 UNDER as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.
--ALABAMA is 13-3 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or 0 turnovers over L3 seasons.
--ALABAMA is 23-11 ATS when playing on a Saturday over the L3 seasons.
• AWESOME ANGLES OF THE WEEK: Alabama rolls into Orlando 8-2 SU and ATS in bowls against foes off a SU and ATS win. In addition, defending national champs off a loss are 7-1 ATS as bowlers versus an opponent off a SU win and SEC bowlers off a SU favorite loss are an 'Awesome' 17-7 ATS (10-1 ATS L11), including 4-0 SU and ATS when they allow 14 or less PPG on the season. The cement comes from our database that tells us to: Play Against - Any New Year’s Day or later underdog who allowed 20+ PPG on the season, versus an opponent that failed to cover its final game of the season. ATS W-L Record 3-18-1 (-14.4 units) since 1980.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ALABAMA) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(23-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 53.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 20.3 (Total points scored = 40.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (61.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (42-16).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 since 1992.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 52.8
The average score in these games was: Team 23.8, Opponent 23.8 (Total points scored = 47.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 14 (43.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
__________________________________________
••• GATOR BOWL •••
MICHIGAN (7-5) VS. MISSISSIPPI ST (8-4)
Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EDT Line: Miss St -4.5 O/U 60
----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Mississippi State program has taken a quick rise under Coach Dan Mullen in two years and as a result he has been mentioned as a possible candidate for several jobs, adding some distraction to the bowl preparation. The Bulldogs have won outright as underdogs in the last three bowl encounters but this will be a different situation as the favorite. Mississippi State went 8-4 and through an SEC schedule that is impressive but the non-conference schedule was very weak and the Bulldogs actually only beat one team that enters the postseason with a winning record, 7-5 Florida. The defense ended the year with good numbers but in the last three games Mississippi State allowed 91 points.
Michigan stumbled after a 5-0 start and blowout losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State to close the season show the ground that the program needs to make up in the Big Ten. Denard Robinson should be fully healthy and Michigan’s offense averaged over 500 yards per game this season but Michigan’s defense really struggled against the pass. Mississippi State was an inconsistent offensive team and they run a spread option attack that Michigan will be used to seeing but the clouds over the Wolverines coaching staff can’t help here. Michigan will be a popular underdog in this game but the results don’t add up to success.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--MICHIGAN is 1-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the L3 seasons.
--Rich Rodriguez is 2-18 ATS after playing a conference game as coach of MICHIGAN.
--MICHIGAN is 0-10 ATS off a loss by 10+ points to a conference rival over L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team against the total (MICHIGAN) - in non-conference games, off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more.
(46-22 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 55.5
The average score in these games was: Team 23.8, Opponent 28.7 (Total points scored = 52.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (44.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-15).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-20).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-28).
__________________________________
••• ROSE BOWL •••
TCU (12-0) VS. WISCONSIN (11-1)
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. EDT Line: TCU -3 O/U 58.5
------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Horned Frogs did not get the pieces to fall together for a spot in the national championship game but the Rose Bowl is not a bad consolation. TCU has failed to cover the last two years as bowl favorites and this will be a difficult match-up with Wisconsin. TCU has far better statistics on both sides of the ball including the best defensive numbers in the nation. The schedule has not been difficult but Wisconsin’s schedule has not been that much more difficult. The Badgers did not have to play Illinois or Penn State in the conference season and the non-conference schedule featured a FCS team and a three losing FBS teams.
Wisconsin’s one loss came to 11-1 Michigan State on the road and the Badgers closed the season on a roll with seven straight wins, many by impressive blowouts. These teams actually scored exactly the same amount of points on the season, averaging just over 43 points per game. Wisconsin allowed nearly twice as many points as TCU did this year. Wisconsin has had mixed results under Coach Bielema in bowl games splitting the last four years but this may be a better situation for TCU out to prove itself against on major conference foe. Wisconsin may end up favored in this game so waiting for value may be worth it.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Bret Bielema is 14-1 OVER off a win by 10+ points over Big 10 rival as WISCONSIN coach.
--WISCONSIN is 8-0 OVER vs. teams with completion pct. of 62% or better over L2 seasons.
--WISCONSIN is 9-1 OVER off a home win over the L2 seasons.
• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS: HC Bret Bielema’s squad has bulldozed its way to a current 6-0 SU and ATS win skein. And with Wisconsin owning a 7-0 SU and ATS mark as a bowler off an ATS win of 7 or more points, things are starting to even out, wouldn’t you say! Not when we factor in Bielema’s 3-8-1 ATS failure versus unbeaten teams, and Field General Gary Patterson’s ‘Amazing' 21-8-1 ATS record (72.4%) as a dog or favorite of less than 7 points against a greater than .600 opponent. The clincher comes from our database: Underdogs in BCS bowl games that allow 19.5 or more PPG on the season are 1-12 ATS if they scored 24 or more points in the final game of the regular season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TCU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=440 YPG), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(33-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 60.8
The average score in these games was: Team 36.3, Opponent 38.2 (Total points scored = 74.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (70.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-15).
__________________________________
••• FIESTA BOWL •••
CONNECTICUT (8-4) VS. OKLAHOMA (11-2)
University of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: Oklahoma -17 O/U 55
------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Sooners closed the season as one of the hottest teams in the nation with four straight wins over bowl teams. Oklahoma got to the Big XII championship by virtue of a tiebreaker and the Sooners will play in a BCS bowl for the fourth time in five years. Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS in the last twelve bowl games and the Sooners have a history of playing poorly in these games but they will be the biggest favorites of the bowl season. Connecticut has four losses including a few ugly ones but the Huskies put together five straight wins in the Big East to take the conference through tiebreakers.
Statistically Connecticut has been out-gained by about 28 yards per game on average but the Huskies have a good running game and a solid defense. Special teams play has been a strong point and Connecticut also has one of the top turnover margins in the nation. Connecticut has won outright in four straight games as underdogs and the numbers over the years are impressive for the Huskies when getting points. Coach Edsall has been a candidate for other positions so there could be distractions and a great turnout from Connecticut fans is unlikely but Oklahoma is hard to trust.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons.
--CONNECTICUT is 11-2 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
--CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over L2 seasons.
• CFB BOWL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Play On any bowl underdog off a win who owns a positive team net YPR versus a foe who owns a negative team net YPR if the opponent won 8 or fewer games last season. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 21-3 (88.0%).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(35-7 since 1992.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 52.8
The average score in these games was: Team 24.1, Opponent 20.6 (Total points scored = 44.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 (CONNECTICUT) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(47-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.6, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 24.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (65-29).
__________________________________
Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
Back in the early 80's, Stan the Man helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent.
Located on the East Coast just a few miles from the University of Seton Hall, Stan the Man is tuned into the Pirates as well as the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stan gets into one of his capping zones!
Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, "They say that the Harder you Work, the Luckier you get" and Stan the Man is Living Proof! When you do business with Stan Szumera you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort, “Enjoy and the best of luck” –Stan!
______________________________________________________________
